How Markets Work
Growth rate = 70% * (doublings/years)
If you can count doublings then you can easily dazzle your friends with how fast you estimate a growth rate for any number of years.
Risk and Edge
Risk and Edge
Trade or Tighten’
A common trading game for trainees
Risk and Edge
Kelly Math Weirdness
The danger of Kelly criterion when the bet is skewed
Risk and Edge
My grandma is $24.05 bid, stop embarrassing yourself
On competition and more on bet sizing
How Markets Work
Getting Comfortable With Log Charts
Visualizing compounding for various rates of return
Risk and Edge
Getting Paid To Flip Million Dollar Coins
How much would you bet on a favorable coin?
Risk and Edge
Thinking In N not T
Sample sizes are not the same over equal time intervals
How Markets Work
Lessons From Ed Thorp’s Interview With Tim Ferriss
What we can learn from Ed Thorp
Risk and Edge
Risk Depends On The Resolution
Volatility depends on sampling period
Risk and Edge
Using The Right Rulers
My notes on 2 books about measurement
How Markets Work
5 Takeaways From Todd Simkin on The AlphaMind Podcast
More lessons from SIG
Risk and Edge
The Midpoint From 1 to 9 is…3?
numeracy practice
Options and Volatility
A Simple Demonstration of Return Vs Volatility
Volatility is a quadratic drag on returns
How Markets Work
Insights From The Warrant Puzzle via Financial Hacking
Financial Hacking is one of the best books applying intuition to common problems in trading and investing
Risk and Edge
Understanding Log Returns
The basics of log returns
Risk and Edge
Geometric vs Arithmetic Mean In The Wild
Using SP500 returns to distinguish geometric (compounded) returns from average arithmetic returns