Options Theory
American options are not vanilla
American options as "optimal stopping time" problems
Options Theory
American options as "optimal stopping time" problems
How Markets Work
votes vs money-weighted votes
Options and Volatility
Last week, in part 1, we backfilled prerequisite knowledge: 1. Distance in return space: equal percentage moves aren’t equal in compounded or log space 2. Vol bonus vs vol tax: trend and chop change the distribution of a levered asset 3. Derivatives-on-derivatives: options on the underlying ETF are inputs
Options and Volatility
“They” say human labor will be irrelevant by 2027. By then, any business you can think will be solved by capital (electricity and tokens) before you brush your teeth in the morning. You either get rich in the next year or join the permanent underclass. So we aren’t shocked
How Markets Work
key differences between retail and institutional traders
Risk and Edge
the "system 2" reaction to a proposition
Options and Volatility
stubborn assumptions die hard
Our thinking on options, trading, investing.
proving diversification is a free lunch
How parallel coordinates turn four volatility metrics into actionable trade structures
speedrunning feedback
Jeff Yass on prediction markets
funding edge cases
every industry has its challenges
law of one price in action
things to watch for in option chains
resources for beginners
the basis of arbitrage and vol surface modeling
The most prominent decision biases in investing
Commentary on the current market