N² - n: why shorting is mathematically cursed
why it's more fun to go long
Latest
not all averages are created equal
bridging middle school math to investing math
From Text ➡️ Dashboards
vibe code a silver dashboard
vega's finishing move
how vega kills
trading as a sudoku puzzle
sense-making from market prices
a market-making project you can do today
market making exercise
approximating gamma in your head
mental math on gamma
oil options and the raw gamma paradox
gamma and calendar spreads
Example of “measurement not prediction” in the wild
Contradictions
the moontower bridge
an opinionated way to marry options to investing
links between options and event prediction markets
The odds surface across marketplaces
sticky vs floating strike
modeling vol surfaces
embedding spot-vol correlation in option deltas
skew delta
how taxes can influence option trades
taxes and options
asian options
average price options
levered silver flows
computing rebalance quantities
How Markets Work
Vol orders and discussion on option execution
A few common misunderstandings
Options and Volatility
Earnings IV Glide Path
shadow theta when an event is approaching
Options and Volatility
HOOD: A Case Study in “Renting the Straddle”
earnings extraction example
Options and Volatility
Pricing 0DTEs
intraday decay
Risk and Edge
The Coastline Paradox in Financial Markets
there's no single volatility, just as there's no single measure of coastline distance
Options and Volatility
Positive delta puts
Selling puts in squeezes
Options Theory
Moontower Binomial Tree Explainer
Pricing American Style options
Options Theory
American options are not vanilla
American options as "optimal stopping time" problems
How Markets Work
“markets vs democracies” in the wild
votes vs money-weighted votes
Options and Volatility
Options on Levered ETFs (part 2)
Last week, in part 1, we backfilled prerequisite knowledge: 1. Distance in return space: equal percentage moves aren’t equal in compounded or log space 2. Vol bonus vs vol tax: trend and chop change the distribution of a levered asset 3. Derivatives-on-derivatives: options on the underlying ETF are inputs
Options and Volatility
Option on Levered ETFs (part 1)
“They” say human labor will be irrelevant by 2027. By then, any business you can think will be solved by capital (electricity and tokens) before you brush your teeth in the morning. You either get rich in the next year or join the permanent underclass. So we aren’t shocked
How Markets Work
"trader" is a uselessly broad term
key differences between retail and institutional traders
Risk and Edge
the arbitrage reflex is more profitable than the opinion reflex
the "system 2" reaction to a proposition
Options and Volatility
the art of paranoia
stubborn assumptions die hard
Risk and Edge
deworsification?
proving diversification is a free lunch
Options and Volatility
Our newest feature: TRADE IDEAS
How parallel coordinates turn four volatility metrics into actionable trade structures