the arbitrage reflex is more profitable than the opinion reflex
the "system 2" reaction to a proposition
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the art of paranoia
stubborn assumptions die hard
deworsification?
proving diversification is a free lunch
Our newest feature: TRADE IDEAS
How parallel coordinates turn four volatility metrics into actionable trade structures
why poker is used to train traders
speedrunning feedback
Spooky? Jeff Yass on Prediction Markets
Jeff Yass on prediction markets
the messiness of options in the real-world
funding edge cases
vol trading is easier than directional trading
every industry has its challenges
VIX futures vs VIX synthetic futures
law of one price in action
what hides in the option chain
things to watch for in option chains
so you're interested in trading
resources for beginners
implying the cost of carry in options
the basis of arbitrage and vol surface modeling
how overconfidence and confirmation bias create reinforcing loops
The most prominent decision biases in investing
my read on the market from the option lens
Commentary on the current market
the easiest win in options is for stock traders
how NOT to incinerate money
Learn put/call parity with this free game
The speed game we played as we learned put/call parity
Options and Volatility
Explaining gamma with a simple simulator
An interactive simulator to understand gamma scalping and delta hedging
Options and Volatility
shadow theta
continuation of the discussion on time spreads through the eyes of a vol trader
how I explained vol drag to a 12-year-old
start squaring a number N then seeing what happens as you multiply 2 numbers whose average equals N
Options Theory
how I understand the Black-Scholes formula
an intuitive way to visualize the Black-Scholes formula
How Markets Work
the GFC through a quant's eyes
the subprime crisis from both real-world and quant perspectives
Options and Volatility
calendar spreads through the eyes of a vol trader
simulating a time spread
Options Theory
Betting on PLTR to $40
Vertical spreads in action
Risk and Edge
timing the market
how a trader can stop the urge to time the market
Risk and Edge
Vol drag is misunderstood...until now
Vol drag does NOT change the mean or expected return. It affects the return you are most likely to experience.
How Markets Work
"turds floating to the surface before the flush"
liquid and levered lead while illiquid and indirect lag
Risk and Edge
Why meme stock put spreads look expensive
How vol drag influences vertical spreads
Risk and Edge
the 80/20 hack for "risk-adjusting" returns
Forecasting your actual compounded return
Options Theory
using elementary school geometry to explain gamma
gamma p/l is the same as distance covered via acceleration
the dirties are down the cleans are up
On June 2nd I tweeted: June expiry in USO vol change on the 3% rally... OPEC agreed over the weekend to hike production...but you saw the Ukraine-Russia developments. Competing bullish/bearish effects Vol is lower today if you look at the June surface. But it's probably up
Risk and Edge
The "most important" gambling topic and a riddle
Non-self-weighting strategy
Risk and Edge
the investment industry is a placebo
Uselessly long feedback loops mean investing is an act of faith