American options are not vanilla
American options as "optimal stopping time" problems
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“markets vs democracies” in the wild
votes vs money-weighted votes
Options on Levered ETFs (part 2)
Last week, in part 1, we backfilled prerequisite knowledge: 1. Distance in return space: equal percentage moves aren’t equal in compounded or log space 2. Vol bonus vs vol tax: trend and chop change the distribution of a levered asset 3. Derivatives-on-derivatives: options on the underlying ETF are inputs
Option on Levered ETFs (part 1)
“They” say human labor will be irrelevant by 2027. By then, any business you can think will be solved by capital (electricity and tokens) before you brush your teeth in the morning. You either get rich in the next year or join the permanent underclass. So we aren’t shocked
"trader" is a uselessly broad term
key differences between retail and institutional traders
the arbitrage reflex is more profitable than the opinion reflex
the "system 2" reaction to a proposition
the art of paranoia
stubborn assumptions die hard
deworsification?
proving diversification is a free lunch
Our newest feature: TRADE IDEAS
How parallel coordinates turn four volatility metrics into actionable trade structures
why poker is used to train traders
speedrunning feedback
Spooky? Jeff Yass on Prediction Markets
Jeff Yass on prediction markets
the messiness of options in the real-world
funding edge cases
vol trading is easier than directional trading
every industry has its challenges
VIX futures vs VIX synthetic futures
law of one price in action
what hides in the option chain
things to watch for in option chains
so you're interested in trading
resources for beginners
Options Theory
implying the cost of carry in options
the basis of arbitrage and vol surface modeling
Risk and Edge
how overconfidence and confirmation bias create reinforcing loops
The most prominent decision biases in investing
How Markets Work
my read on the market from the option lens
Commentary on the current market
Options Theory
the easiest win in options is for stock traders
how NOT to incinerate money
Options Theory
Learn put/call parity with this free game
The speed game we played as we learned put/call parity
Options and Volatility
Explaining gamma with a simple simulator
An interactive simulator to understand gamma scalping and delta hedging
Options and Volatility
shadow theta
continuation of the discussion on time spreads through the eyes of a vol trader
how I explained vol drag to a 12-year-old
start squaring a number N then seeing what happens as you multiply 2 numbers whose average equals N
Options Theory
how I understand the Black-Scholes formula
an intuitive way to visualize the Black-Scholes formula
How Markets Work
the GFC through a quant's eyes
the subprime crisis from both real-world and quant perspectives
Options and Volatility
calendar spreads through the eyes of a vol trader
simulating a time spread
Options Theory
Betting on PLTR to $40
Vertical spreads in action
Risk and Edge
timing the market
how a trader can stop the urge to time the market
Risk and Edge
Vol drag is misunderstood...until now
Vol drag does NOT change the mean or expected return. It affects the return you are most likely to experience.
How Markets Work
"turds floating to the surface before the flush"
liquid and levered lead while illiquid and indirect lag
Risk and Edge
Why meme stock put spreads look expensive
How vol drag influences vertical spreads