Moontower Binomial Tree Explainer

Pricing American Style options

American options are not vanilla

American options as "optimal stopping time" problems

“markets vs democracies” in the wild

votes vs money-weighted votes

Options on Levered ETFs (part 2)

Last week, in part 1, we backfilled prerequisite knowledge: 1. Distance in return space: equal percentage moves aren’t equal in compounded or log space 2. Vol bonus vs vol tax: trend and chop change the distribution of a levered asset 3. Derivatives-on-derivatives: options on the underlying ETF are inputs

Option on Levered ETFs (part 1)

“They” say human labor will be irrelevant by 2027. By then, any business you can think will be solved by capital (electricity and tokens) before you brush your teeth in the morning. You either get rich in the next year or join the permanent underclass. So we aren’t shocked

"trader" is a uselessly broad term

key differences between retail and institutional traders

the arbitrage reflex is more profitable than the opinion reflex

the "system 2" reaction to a proposition

the art of paranoia

stubborn assumptions die hard

deworsification?

proving diversification is a free lunch

Our newest feature: TRADE IDEAS

How parallel coordinates turn four volatility metrics into actionable trade structures

why poker is used to train traders

speedrunning feedback

Spooky? Jeff Yass on Prediction Markets

Jeff Yass on prediction markets