Risk and Edge
How Tails Constrain Investment Allocations
How low probability-events restrict advisable position sizes
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How Markets Work
Market Mutations
An example of the biological nature of markets
How Markets Work
Markets Will Permanently Reset Higher (My Sacrifice to the Delta Gods)
When the market going up is the scariest risk
How Markets Work
Investing Is Biology Not Physics
Markets evolve and adapt. Be careful extrapolating from the past.
How Markets Work
Is There Actually An Equity Premium Puzzle?
The distribution of the stock market is different than the distribution of stocks
How Markets Work
How Much of Momentum Is Caused By Randomness?
This is an example of a broad question we should always ask ourselves: "what would the random version of some process look like?"
How Markets Work
How Math Is Sufficient To Explain Small Stock Outperformance
Is it possible that factors overexplain excess performance?
How Markets Work
Your Portfolio Intuition Is Poor
Our instincts about the role of correlation are not well-tuned
How Markets Work
The Antisocial Advantage
When "disagreeable" is an adaptive trait
Risk and Edge
Percents Are Tricky
Possible pitfalls of thinking in percents with ratios
Options and Volatility
The Volatility Drain
The arithmetic behind how increased volatility reduces average compounded returns
How Markets Work
The Peace Dividend of Overvaluation
What high prices beg for
Risk and Edge
Levered ETF/ETN tool
Compute the amount of dollars required to rebalance a levered exposure
How Markets Work
The difficulty with shorting and inverse positions
The brutal arithmetic behind shorting
How Markets Work
Are car leases confusing?
Leases are options with an embedded cost of carry