### Probability Matching In Nature

A wild phenomena

A wild phenomena

Probability resources

Edge Functions: the hurdle for a trader's unit economics

Theta vs vega weighting

The essence of understanding that calls and puts are actually the same

When are you an investor vs a trader?

The lingua franca of asset management regardless of strategy is returns.

The follow up to Breakpoints

Stepping thru my GME roll

Gridpoints on the vol surface

GME trade and more

Lessons of markets that rhyme

A tour of SPY skew in pictures

On thinking of performance in pure dollars

Back out the option premium from a car lease

When event pricing hides extremely cheap trading day volatility

Options and Volatility

Thoughts about pricing 0DTEs that respect how volatility unfolds

Options and Volatility

A smattering of practical option tips

How Markets Work

On ETF and option market-making

How Markets Work

A guest post showing how “markets find a way”

Risk and Edge

Vol is more stable than returns

How Markets Work

If you can count doublings then you can easily dazzle your friends with how fast you estimate a growth rate for any number of years.

Options Theory

Puzzles to build fundamental trading logic

How Markets Work

Fundamentals [still] matter

How Markets Work

What we can learn from historical performance

How Markets Work

Notes on my personal investing and hedging inflation

Options and Volatility

Why all implied volatilities are "wrong"

Risk and Edge

A common trading game for trainees

Options Theory

A visual mapping of the greeks

How Markets Work

Link to a collection of career resources

Risk and Edge

The danger of Kelly criterion when the bet is skewed

How Markets Work

What people confess when they say markets don't make sense