Risk and Edge
The Coastline Paradox in Financial Markets
there's no single volatility, just as there's no single measure of coastline distance
Kris Abdelmessih
Options and Volatility
Positive delta puts
Selling puts in squeezes
Options Theory
Moontower Binomial Tree Explainer
Pricing American Style options
Options Theory
American options are not vanilla
American options as "optimal stopping time" problems
How Markets Work
“markets vs democracies” in the wild
votes vs money-weighted votes
Options and Volatility
Options on Levered ETFs (part 2)
Last week, in part 1, we backfilled prerequisite knowledge: 1. Distance in return space: equal percentage moves aren’t equal in compounded or log space 2. Vol bonus vs vol tax: trend and chop change the distribution of a levered asset 3. Derivatives-on-derivatives: options on the underlying ETF are inputs
Options and Volatility
Option on Levered ETFs (part 1)
“They” say human labor will be irrelevant by 2027. By then, any business you can think will be solved by capital (electricity and tokens) before you brush your teeth in the morning. You either get rich in the next year or join the permanent underclass. So we aren’t shocked
How Markets Work
"trader" is a uselessly broad term
key differences between retail and institutional traders
Risk and Edge
the arbitrage reflex is more profitable than the opinion reflex
the "system 2" reaction to a proposition
Options and Volatility
the art of paranoia
stubborn assumptions die hard
Risk and Edge
deworsification?
proving diversification is a free lunch
Options and Volatility
Our newest feature: TRADE IDEAS
How parallel coordinates turn four volatility metrics into actionable trade structures
Risk and Edge
why poker is used to train traders
speedrunning feedback
How Markets Work
Spooky? Jeff Yass on Prediction Markets
Jeff Yass on prediction markets
Options Theory
the messiness of options in the real-world
funding edge cases
How Markets Work
vol trading is easier than directional trading
every industry has its challenges